Central Theme
The article addresses the growing alarm among economists that Poland’s public finances are on an unsustainable path, potentially leading to a financial crisis reminiscent of the one experienced by Greece.
Key Findings and Arguments
- Worsening Financial Situation: Poland’s public finance deficit reached 6.9% of GDP in early 2025 and is growing despite favorable economic conditions. The European Commission has placed Poland on its “red list” of countries with high fiscal risk for the first time.
- “Parallel Budget”: Experts point to a long-standing practice of moving government spending into off-budget funds (e.g., for roads or COVID-19 relief). This creates a significant discrepancy: the debt according to EU methodology is nearly 60% of GDP, while the official domestic figure is only 45%.
- Approaching Constitutional Limit: Economists warn that at the current pace, Poland’s public debt will hit the constitutional limit of 60% of GDP by 2026 or 2027, forcing drastic measures.
- Lack of Political Accountability: The issue of public finance has reportedly disappeared from public debate, with politicians from all sides proposing new spending or tax cuts without considering the fiscal impact.
Conclusions and Takeaways
While Poland is not yet in a crisis, the trajectory is clear and dangerous. The core takeaway is that without a change in fiscal policy, Poland risks a severe financial crisis. Unlike Greece, which was bailed out by the European Central Bank as a eurozone member, Poland would have to face a potential speculative attack on its currency and debt alone.
Mentoring Question
The article highlights how using off-budget funds creates a significant gap between the official domestic debt figures and the EU’s assessment. How can such “creative accounting” impact a country’s credibility and its relationship with international financial markets and institutions?
Source: https://dorzeczy.pl/ekonomia/752250/polska-druga-grecja-ekonomisci-ostrzegaja-przed-katastrofa.html