The Power of Inversion: Thinking Backward to Achieve Success

This video introduces the mental model of “inversion,” a powerful technique used by great thinkers that involves thinking backward instead of just forward. The central theme is that to achieve extraordinary results, one must not only plan for success but also actively identify and avoid potential failures. The core message is demonstrated through the story of statistician Abraham Wald during WWII, who saved countless lives by reinforcing the parts of returning airplanes that had *no* bullet holes, correctly deducing these were the fatal spots on the planes that never made it back.

The Two Faces of Inversion

The video breaks down inversion into two primary approaches:

1. Working Backward from the End: Championed by mathematician Carl Jacobi, this method involves starting at the desired solution and tracing the steps backward. This is compared to solving a maze from the finish line, which reveals a clearer, more direct path than starting from the beginning.
2. Focusing on the Opposite: This involves defining what you want to avoid rather than what you want to achieve. Inspired by Stoic philosophers like Marcus Aurelius and investors like Charlie Munger, the idea is that it’s often more effective to avoid stupid decisions and common failures than to strive for moments of brilliance. By identifying what guarantees failure, you can strategically steer clear of those traps.

How to Use Inversion in Daily Life

Inversion is a practical tool applicable to various domains:

• Business & Projects: Use a “failure premortem” exercise. Imagine your project has completely failed and work backward to determine the causes. This helps identify and mitigate risks before they occur.
• Relationships: Instead of the Golden Rule (“Treat others as you want to be treated”), use its inverted form: “Don’t treat others how you *don’t* want to be treated.” This creates clearer guidelines by focusing on avoiding universally negative behaviors like disrespect, criticism, and dishonesty.
• Health: Rather than trying to build the perfect health routine, focus on eliminating habits that are actively harming you. The path to better physical and mental health often begins with doing less of what breaks you, such as reducing junk food, doom-scrolling, or interacting with negative people.

The main takeaway is that success is often achieved by systematically avoiding the causes of failure. By inverting problems, you can gain a clearer perspective and make more robust decisions in all areas of life.

Mentoring question

Consider a significant goal you’re currently pursuing. Instead of asking ‘What do I need to do to succeed?’, apply inversion and ask, ‘What actions or inactions would guarantee my failure?’. What one or two critical pitfalls can you now actively work to avoid?

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=-wC_Oosh1Mw&si=l-2p5ue89lifs18v