The war in Ukraine may be entering a new phase, described as the “beginning of the end,” driven by the maturation of Ukraine’s long-term attrition strategy. Initially dismissed, this strategy of making the war too costly for Russia is now yielding significant results, with a new focus on systematically dismantling Russia’s air defense network.
The Core Strategy: Attrition of Air Defenses
Ukraine is exploiting Russia’s vast size by using long-range drones and new “Flamingo” cruise missiles to strike deep within Russian territory. This creates chaos and forces Russia to constantly relocate its limited air defense systems to protect critical infrastructure. The key insight is that these advanced systems are most vulnerable when they are in transit. Ukraine is capitalizing on this by targeting and destroying them on the move, creating an exponential effect where each destroyed system makes the next one easier to target.
Key Arguments and Effects
- The ‘Foot in the Door’ Effect: By creating small gaps in Russia’s air defense, Ukraine is widening them at an accelerating rate. This domino effect will eventually leave Russia’s skies, military factories, and logistics hubs undefended.
- Psychological Warfare: As air defenses dwindle, the Russian elite in Moscow will inevitably prioritize their own protection, pulling defenses from the outer regions. This is predicted to make citizens in those areas feel abandoned, foster dissent, and weaken Russia’s ability to recruit soldiers and source resources.
- A Semi-Permanent Advantage: Advanced air defense systems, like the S-400, can take 12-18 months to replace. Each successful strike by Ukraine sets Russia back significantly, creating a semi-permanent change on the battlefield that cannot be rectified during the war.
Conclusion and Takeaway
Ukraine’s patient, long-game strategy is crippling Russia’s ability to wage war. By systematically eliminating air defenses, Ukraine will gain the freedom to destroy Russia’s military-industrial capacity and supply lines. This will ultimately starve the front lines of troops and equipment, creating a realistic win condition where the Russian front could collapse. The current phase is seen as a rapid acceleration towards this end goal.
Mentoring question
The video highlights a long-term strategy that required years of patience before showing exponential results. In your own goals, how do you balance the need for immediate results with the discipline required for a long-game strategy that could yield a much greater payoff over time?
Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=MgXwMcu8uyk&si=jo1fnajK-OxWr5ig
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