The article examines the potential consequences for Europe stemming from the escalating US-China trade war, characterized by prohibitive tariffs (up to 145% on Chinese goods to the US, 125% on US goods to China) that are effectively halting bilateral trade.

Central Theme: The core issue is the concern that China, seeking new markets for goods worth approximately $429 billion annually previously destined for the US, will flood the European market with cheap products, potentially harming European industries. European businesses are calling for protective measures.

Key Points & Arguments:

• Experts caution against premature panic, noting that less competitive European industries often use crises to demand protection.
• Analysis by the St. Gallen Endowment think tank suggests the threat might be less widespread than feared. Chinese exports to the US are highly concentrated: only 101 out of nearly 19,000 product categories have significant import values ($500M+).
• Four product groups (smartphones, laptops, Li-ion batteries, toys) account for nearly a quarter of Chinese imports to the US.
• Contrary to fears, Chinese producers lost US import market share in 56 out of 98 high-volume categories studied between 2022-2024, suggesting potentially weakening competitiveness in many areas.
• However, a specific group of 15 categories (worth €19 billion in US imports) showed Chinese producers gaining market share despite worsening relative cost positions. This indicates strong competitive advantages and poses a tangible threat to European competitors.
• Notably, this threat group includes mid-range gasoline-powered automobiles (e.g., Passat/Insignia/Superb class), alongside items like sunglasses and children’s books, but not necessarily the widely discussed electric vehicles.

Conclusions & Takeaways:

• The risk of a detrimental “flood” of Chinese goods is concentrated in a relatively small number of product categories where Chinese firms demonstrate superior competitiveness, rather than being a universal threat across the board.
• The recommended policy response for the EU is not broad, preemptive protectionism but rather close, real-time monitoring of import flows.
• Targeted, temporary defensive measures (tariffs, import controls) should only be implemented if specific EU industries are demonstrably threatened by a surge in imports from China.
• The EU Commission already has monitoring systems for sensitive sectors like steel, aluminum, and chemicals.

Source: Chiny znalazły sposób na wykiwanie świata. “Możliwe zniszczenie całych gałęzi gospodarki” – Wiadomości